VIX Futures Invert - This Is Not A Drill!
Video Note :: October 12, 2025
Sorry for the clickbait title, but in this rare occasion, it is well deserved. Friday was ugly, and one of the most important warning signals I watch for triggered. It is never a good sign when the VIX futures term structure flips into backwardation, and I find it especially worrisome when it does so right at the close on a Friday, which is what happened this week.
Because the selloff started with a social media post, it can end with another. By the time you’re reading this, Trump may have already pivoted. But as I discuss in the video, Trump may feel emboldened to hold his ground so long as he doesn’t get a signal from the bond market to retreat. Everyone expects T.A.C.O. again, but maybe he doesn’t “chicken out” this time, at least not right away.
In the below video, I go deep on everything I’ve been highlighting in markets recently that has had my attention. It’s a long one but there was a lot to cover. After you start the video, if you click on the “>>” symbol in the lower right corner, you can increase the playback speed.
For those of you who want more, I share my daily read of markets and volatility on X @vixedsignals and in Substack Notes and Chat.
Also, please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of this note. It’s important.
If you’re new here and want to know a little bit more about me, check out my About page and my introduction post (below).
Disclaimer
Please keep in mind that NOTHING contained in this publication should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold ANYTHING. Following me (or anyone, for that matter) into a trade without doing your own research is a dangerous game for many reasons. Just because I share positions I have on or how I am positioning around something does not mean I think anyone else should follow me. In fact, I would discourage anyone from putting on a trade just because I or anyone else highlights it. My hope in sharing these notes is that they will lead to readers learning, asking questions, and getting curious about markets all while I strive to improve my own process along the way.
Awesome, thanks for the video, its super helpful!
great vid again, these are massively helpful